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Catherine Elding
- 19 July 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2024Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 62 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 17 and 26 June 2024, aggregate activity continued to pick up in the second quarter, amid increasing signs of a modest, consumption-led recovery. The outlook for investment remained subdued, however, with uncertainty still high. Price growth was moderate and continued to be stronger in services than in industry. Wage growth was expected to slow further next year, while still compensating to some extent for past inflation.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 28 July 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 73 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 26 June and 5 July, aggregate activity continued to stagnate in the second quarter of 2023, with differences across sectors still notable. Activity declined in the construction and intermediate goods sectors and in related transport and logistics services. However, consumer spending was proving more resilient than many expected. The growth rate of selling prices continued to decelerate, especially in the industrial sector, as non-labour input costs stabilised. Expectations for wage growth remained strong but showed some signs of moderation when looking forwards to 2024.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 3 February 2023
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2023Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the findings of recent contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 73 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. According to these exchanges, which took place between 4 and 12 January 2023, aggregate activity had broadly stagnated or contracted mildly in the fourth quarter of 2022, but with notable differences across sectors. The short-term outlook for activity remained subdued with much uncertainty, but there was increased hope of a pick-up in 2023. Selling prices continued to increase in aggregate, but at a moderating pace and with more variability across sectors and a less certain outlook. Wage growth was now the predominant cost concern, although wage expectations remained broadly unchanged from the previous survey round. Despite greater wage cost pressure and very high uncertainty regarding the future path of energy prices, most contacts expected lower price growth in 2023 than in 2022.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 23 July 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the main findings from contacts between ECB staff and representatives of 63 leading non-financial companies operating in the euro area. The exchanges took place between 28 June and 7 July 2021. According to these contacts, overall activity was growing strongly in the second quarter of 2021 and this was expected to continue in the third quarter, reflecting the gradual easing of lockdowns and travel restrictions, which benefited services, and the continued strong demand for manufactured goods. At the same time, shortages of inputs and transport bottlenecks were limiting activity somewhat in the manufacturing sector and generating pipeline pressures, some of which would feed through to final consumer prices and wages. These pressures should gradually ease over the next 6-18 months.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 3 February 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2021Details
- Abstract
- As part of the process of gathering information on the outlook for economic activity and prices, the European Central Bank (ECB) maintains regular contacts with non-financial companies. This gathering of business intelligence has become more structured over time and tends to be particularly valuable during exceptional periods, such as those resulting from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Therefore, starting with this issue of the Economic Bulletin, the ECB will provide a summary of the main findings from its contacts with leading euro area businesses. This article explains how these interactions contribute to the ECB’s economic analysis and how they are organised and summarised. The main findings from the most recent exchanges with companies, which took place in early January, are summarised in Box 1.
- JEL Code
- E2 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy
E3 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
L2 : Industrial Organization→Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior
- 7 November 2018
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 7, 2018Details
- Abstract
- This box summarises the findings of an ad hoc ECB survey of leading euro area companies looking at the impact that digitalisation has on the economy. Overall, companies regard digitalisation as having a positive impact on their sales and productivity, mainly because it provides better access to customers, facilitates the sharing of knowledge and makes production processes more efficient. They also see digitalisation increasing their flexibility when it comes to price setting. Most companies, particularly manufacturers, tend to regard digitalisation as reducing costs and increasing margins, but retailers are more likely to see input costs increasing and margins being squeezed. Finally, companies report that digitalisation is having a small negative impact on employment, while emphasising the importance of retraining and upskilling.
- JEL Code
- O33 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Technological Change, Research and Development, Intellectual Property Rights→Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes
E00 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→General
- 3 November 2014
- OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES - No. 156Details
- Abstract
- This paper reviews potential output from a euro area perspective by summarising the developments according to international institutions and assessing the impact of the crisis. The paper also considers the methodological basis for potential output estimates, and the high degree of uncertainty that surrounds them. Although it is too early to see the full effects of structural reforms implemented since 2007/08, further structural reforms are needed to support euro area potential growth, especially in view of the negative impact that population ageing is expected to have on potential growth in the future.
- JEL Code
- E23 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Production
E25 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E37 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
O49 : Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth→Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity→Other