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Mika Tujula
- 30 July 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 5, 2024Details
- Abstract
- This article introduces the Distributional Wealth Accounts (DWA) developed by the European System of Central Banks and explores some of their main features and use cases. First, it describes the methodology behind DWA compilation, detailing data sources, estimation techniques and the significance of the dataset for economic analysis. It then highlights key stylised evidence on the changes in the wealth distribution of households over time and across countries. In this context, it highlights the heterogeneous portfolio composition and the varied effects of housing and financial asset prices on wealth accumulation, and their implications for inequality. Finally, the article investigates how the recent surge in inflation and the subsequent monetary policy tightening have affected the distribution of wealth.
- JEL Code
- E4 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates
E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E5 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
G21 : Financial Economics→Financial Institutions and Services→Banks, Depository Institutions, Micro Finance Institutions, Mortgages
- 11 January 2024
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 8, 2023Last updated on 30 January 2024Details
- Abstract
- This box analyses recent developments in the net interest income of households and firms in the euro area as a whole and in the largest euro area countries, against the backdrop of rising interest rates. Net interest income is a direct channel through which the ECB transmits policy rate changes to savers and borrowers. Over the last decade net interest income has been negative for households and firms at the aggregate sectoral level. Interest-bearing assets, which affect the interest received by households and firms, and liabilities, which affect interest paid, are important drivers of developments in net interest income. Individual countries demonstrate striking differences in net interest income and interest-bearing assets and liabilities, largely due to specific structural factors.
- JEL Code
- E01 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→General→Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth, Environmental Accounts
E43 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 23 June 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 4, 2022Details
- Abstract
- The debt financing structure of euro area firms has broadened since the introduction of the euro. While bank loans still account for a major share of corporate debt, euro area firms have increasingly resorted to bond financing over the past decade and a half. Empirical evidence suggests that this shift in firms’ debt financing structures affects the transmission of shocks to the euro area economy. While corporate bonds and loans typically respond in a similar procyclical manner to exogenous changes in business investment, bond issuance tends to mildly cushion the credit contraction resulting from adverse supply shocks. The evidence also indicates that a higher share of bond financing strengthens the transmission of monetary policy measures that primarily operate via longer-term yields, whereas short-term rate changes tend to exert stronger real effects in economies that are more dependent on loans. From a broader perspective, the higher share of bond financing renders euro area firms more resilient against crises concentrated in the banking sector. However, this benefit may be counteracted by a rising presence of more vulnerable firms in the corporate bond market and by the structural vulnerabilities of non-bank financial intermediaries, which are significant investors in that market.
- JEL Code
- E44 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Money and Interest Rates→Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E51 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Money Supply, Credit, Money Multipliers
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 23 March 2022
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 2, 2022Details
- Abstract
- The negative impact of the pandemic on the euro area corporate sector has been mitigated by an effective monetary, fiscal and supervisory policy response. This is also reflected in a low number of corporate insolvency cases. Looking ahead, the balance sheet health of firms and, by extension, the asset quality of banks hinge on the strength of the economic recovery and the financing conditions for firms. Higher corporate indebtedness could dampen investment, posing a risk to the economic recovery. For small and medium-sized enterprises, the pandemic could add to pre-existing vulnerabilities. Structural policies to improve the business environment, including policies aimed at broadening the sources of funding available to firms beyond debt financing, could support sustainable investment growth.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
F34 : International Economics→International Finance→International Lending and Debt Problems
G32 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance→Financing Policy, Financial Risk and Risk Management, Capital and Ownership Structure, Value of Firms, Goodwill
- 22 September 2021
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - BOXEconomic Bulletin Issue 6, 2021Details
- Abstract
- This box assesses the health of the euro area non-financial corporate sector at an aggregate level during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic using the quarterly sectoral accounts. The results suggest that non-financial corporate liquidity was safeguarded at the aggregated sector level. This was mainly due to a build-up of cash buffers, as is typical for crisis periods, and the timely and extensive reactions from the monetary, fiscal and supervisory authorities. Policy interventions provided direct and indirect support to non-financial corporations and enabled firms to substantially increase their recourse to debt financing. However, non-financial corporate profitability, operating efficiency, indebtedness and vulnerabilities came under pressure, increasing the risk of a rise in firm defaults in the future.
- JEL Code
- E22 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Capital, Investment, Capacity
E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
- 23 November 2020
- FINANCIAL STABILITY REVIEW - BOXFinancial Stability Review Issue 2, 2020Details
- Abstract
- The coronavirus pandemic has threatened the existence of many euro area firms. While liquidity shortages were seen as the major threat to corporate health at the beginning of the pandemic, more recently firms’ solvency has become the primary concern. Against this backdrop, this box assesses euro area corporate vulnerabilities and the underlying factors. It develops a new composite indicator that allows analysis of the time-varying impact and the relative importance of the factors driving corporate financial soundness and risk. Using aggregate sectoral accounts data, this measure combines indicators along five dimensions: debt service capacity, leverage/indebtedness, financing/rollover, profitability and activity. According to the composite indicator, corporate vulnerabilities have increased to levels last observed at the peak of the euro area sovereign debt crisis and are largely driven by a drop in sales, lower actual and expected profitability, and an increase in leverage and indebtedness. However, extensive monetary, fiscal and prudential policy measures have limited the increase in corporate vulnerability, primarily by ensuring favourable funding conditions. So far, government loan guarantees and bankruptcy moratoria have also prevented a large wave of corporate defaults, but a sizeable number of firms could be forced to file for bankruptcy if these measures are lifted too early or bank lending conditions tighten.
- JEL Code
- E6 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
G3 : Financial Economics→Corporate Finance and Governance
- 5 February 2020
- ECONOMIC BULLETIN - ARTICLEEconomic Bulletin Issue 1, 2020Details
- Abstract
- This article focuses on household wealth in the euro area from a macroeconomic perspective. It describes developments in financial and non-financial wealth and their driving forces. The impact of wealth on private consumption is then discussed. It concludes with some monetary policy implications.
- JEL Code
- E21 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Consumption, Saving, Production, Investment, Labor Markets, and Informal Economy→Consumption, Saving, Wealth
E52 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit→Monetary Policy
- 28 December 2007
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 843Details
- Abstract
- While fiscal forecasting and monitoring has its roots in the accountability of governments for the use of public funds in democracies, the Stability and Growth Pact has significantly increased interest in budgetary forecasts in Europe, where they play a key role in the EU multilateral budgetary surveillance. In view of the increased prominence and sensitivity of budgetary forecasts, which may lead to them being influenced by strategic and political factors, this paper discusses the main issues and challenges in the field of fiscal forecasting from a practitioner's perspective and places them in the context of the related literature.
- JEL Code
- H6 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
C53 : Mathematical and Quantitative Methods→Econometric Modeling→Forecasting and Prediction Methods, Simulation Methods
- 20 December 2004
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 422Details
- Abstract
- Fiscal balances have deteriorated quickly in recent years, bringing back to the foreground the question what factors help explain such sharp changes. This paper takes a broad perspective at the issue regarding countries included, the range of explanatory variables tried, and the time-span. The empirical analysis shows that changes in budget balances are affected by debt growth, macroeconomic developments and political factors. In particular, we find that the run-up to EMU induced additional consolidation in Europe and that budget balances deteriorate markedly in election years. Asset prices also may affect budgets, but the impact remains limited in normal times.
- JEL Code
- E61 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Policy Objectives, Policy Designs and Consistency, Policy Coordination
E62 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→Fiscal Policy
H61 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Budget, Budget Systems
H62 : Public Economics→National Budget, Deficit, and Debt→Deficit, Surplus
- 1 September 2001
- WORKING PAPER SERIES - No. 77Details
- Abstract
- Estimates of cyclically-adjusted budget balances, correcting actual government budget balances for business cycle fluctuations, are produced by many institutions, including the European Commission, the IMF and the OECD. This paper presents an alternative approach for the cyclical adjustment of budget balances. The approach is based on a disaggregated method for the calculation of the cyclical component of the budget balance. In this approach, the effects of changes in the structure of demand and national income on government revenue and expenditure are captured. Cases where the various macroeconomic bases are in different phases of the cycle or exhibit fluctuations of different magnitude are taken into account in this way. The computation of the cyclical components of these macroeconomic bases is based on the Hodrick-Prescott filter and takes into account the latest evidence presented in the literature about the properties of this filter. The paper also presents new estimates of the elasticities of individual budget items with respect to the relevant macroeconomic variables. The method is used within the ESCB for the estimation of cyclically adjusted budget balances of the EU countries
- JEL Code
- E32 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles→Business Fluctuations, Cycles
E60 : Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics→Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook→General
Annexes